Posted on the online English-language version of the Chosun Ilbo:
A North Korean mouthpiece in Japan said Wednesday the U.S. fabricated stories of an imminent ballistic missile test-launch by Pyongyang but hinted the North may halt the launch all the same.
Come again?
The U.S. is lying about the missile that you say you *might* delay launching anyway? Either something is getting lost in the translation or we’re all being treated to another episode of ‘let’s pretend North Korea has a legitimate, rational government instead genocidal thug dictator with a Hollywood complex.’ Apparently a popular reality show here.
Lest you think it’s all about Dokdo, the World Cup and what to wear during the monsoon over here, some are indeed preoccupied with our burgeoning Asian missile crisis.
While reminding us that the Western news media’s version of “covering” the Korean peninsula is to monitor what’s published in translations of the Seoul major dailies, the Marmot also points out why Seoul’s reaction isn’t what some in the international community expect:
You also have to take into consideration the fact that most of South Korea has been within North Korean missile range for quite some time, and most here in Seoul—well within the range of North Korean artillery—take it for granted that in the event of hostilities, we’d have at most a couple of minutes to kiss our asses goodbye, nukes or no nukes. ICBMs are even more irrelevant.
Intercontinental missiles are, pretty much by definition, not for use in hitting countries a six-seven hour drive away. Yes, they put parts of the United States within range of North Korean stupidity, but so what? Welcome to our world.
Contrary to popular opinion, however, he says South Korea has a lot to lose from a DPRK test launch and the government knows it. (Recent whistling past the graveyard notwithstanding).
Seoul does take the potential missile test seriously. Actually, I think they dread a test even more than Washington or Tokyo. Dollars to donuts the U.S. and Japan actually want the North to launch, as it provides them even more justification to up the pressure on the North, makes it tougher for China to continue protecting the North in the UN (which Beijing will continue to do anyway, but at greater diplomatic cost), and who knows—they might even get a chance to try out that snazzy new missile defense system they’ve been working on.
If the North fires a missile, the black haze you’ll see on the horizon won’t be from a warhead going off; it will be South Korea’s efforts to get the Americans to play nice with Pyongyang going up in smoke. The North would have shot itself in the foot once again, but it will be the South that does the bleeding.
It’s probably also worth noting that there are probably a few South Korean officials who fear the Americans might actually respond to a test by delivering a world of hurt on the North via B-2 or F-117, and do I really have to explain why somebody within North Korean artillery range and a one-hour drive from a goodly percentage of the Korean People’s Army might not necessarily view that as a fortuitous turn of events?
The South Koreans aren’t underplaying reports because they’re not concerned about a test. They’re simply trying to keep the situation calm while they pray to sweet Jesus the North doesn’t screw them once again.
I’ve clipped some of the interesting stuff here, but the entire post is really a must-read, particularly the ensuing discussion in the comments. I’m glad to see this getting more attention. I was wondering why we haven’t been hearing about this, like nonstop, for days, instead of it taking a back seat to soccer.
Maybe, like Kushibo says, it’s simply “threat fatique.” I guess it sort of indicates I’m new here. Hello? Dictator within a day’s drive is planning to test an ICBM . . . That’s not good, right?
Um, right?
{ 11 comments }
Rose Byrd 06.22.06 at 5:27 am
As an American citizen whose favorite “big brother” in my small rural childhood community was just returning from the Korean “police action” as I started school in the first grade, I have always tried to keep myself informed of the many grave challenges ongoing on the Korean peninsula.
Now, as that same American citizen who prays hourly for her dear children now living in Seoul, naturally I hang on every news item I can find regarding N.Korean “activities”.
Regarding the “threat fatigue” no doubt experience by South Koreans, I am reminded of the scenes in Return of the King in J.R.R. Tolkiens’s Lord of the Ring Trilogy where a pair of Hobbits are sitting on a mound of debris, post-battle w/the Dark Lord’s evil forces, muching away on one of their favorite snacks, apples, and singing. Tolkien celebrated the ability of everyday folk to celebrate the simplest joys available on this earth NO MATTER WHAT. I am also reminded of New Yorkers hugging each other and sharing jokes over cold coffee and horrible doughnuts as they cleaned up after 9-11. I am reminded of Hobbits and New Yorkers in this manner when I see the celebrating crowds at the World Cup matches in Seoul. The best revenge is a good party, huh?
Please know, Cat, that you and David and all of South Korea are in millions of prayers around the world minute by minute.
Jodi 06.22.06 at 9:08 am
“Threat fatigue” is exactly what it is and I feel it too. But as the boys at The Korea Liberator are saying: Please, please please test it!
I agree with their stance and although I also am experiencing “threat fatigue” myself, a launch could be a good thing.
David 06.22.06 at 11:55 am
Actually, I think most the likely outcomes would be bad for South Korea. Already, many people (and investors) put a “war risk” premium on South Korea. The launching of the missile and the inevitible response from the “axis of evil” U.S. administration would only further enflame tensions and move the peninsula towards armed conflict. Investors may be chilled enough by the increased tensions to start panic-selling, thus putting the Korean economy into a recession.
This would also give the Japanese cause to increase their military, which history has shown to be bad for the entire region, especially since the Japanese haven’t been exactly apologetic about past aggressions and atrocities.
Another scenario (that the Korea Liberator brought up) is that the U.S. counters this move by the Japanese by increasing its military presence instead. Even though I am knee-jerk opposed to increased U.S. military in any region (given Iraq as it is), North Asia may turn out like Western EU, with the U.S. picking up the majority of the tab for military defense, leaving the host countries to focus their budgets on more productive things.
But, the worst-case scenario is that the U.S. does something stupid in return like bomb NK and “Fat Boy” Kim, not exactly the most sane of individuals, might respond by shelling Seoul. Not good.
Jodi 06.22.06 at 1:12 pm
Sorry for going off topic here but…
Japan poses no threat to the region as long as no one (aka NK) attacks it and in that case, it will only act in self-defense under current laws. Likewise, it probably won’t act alone in such a case and will most likely go through the UN before taking any drastic measures.
Yes, it still has a formible self defense team and a navy that can kick everyone’s @** in Northeast Asia, but I would not be very much concerned about them.
Yes, a NK missile launch will increase Japanese security forces/funding but it won’t necessarily be something to excessively worry about, in my opinion.
It could start an arms race in NE Asia but China is already building up its military anyway. (And as someone pointed out to me, a premature build-up in China could be a good thing as it undermines its ability in the long run, much like happened with the Soviet Union and the US.)
Actually, what Japan has is not even considered a military per se, but more of a homeland defense team (which I guess is like an euphanism.)
Also, the whole thing about Japan not apologizing…Japan has apologized…many times.
What it hasn’t done is it hasn’t financially compensated victims of its military agression but it has apologized and its apologies have been recognized by some Chinese and South Korean officials. Whether or not it was an appropriate apology (ie. the example of Germany) is another debate, however.
Anyway, sorry for veering off topic.
Rose Byrd 06.22.06 at 1:15 pm
As I have commented before on this blog on the discussion about Kaesong business zone, I believe that real answer is dollar diplomacy; therefore, I agree with David that missile launching by Kim il-Jong would definitely hurt economic progress and budding cooperation between Japan, China, N.Korea (slightly), South Korea, and maybe even Taiwan indirectly. As editorialized on major news websites, I believe the deranged, deluded N. Korean ruler and the rulers in Iran have the following in common: they want to wave around their nukes to intimidate the major economic powers into investing more in their economies. It worked for the now defunct U.S.S.R., didn’t it? In other words, there may be a few tiny cells in these dictators hearts and minds that are just sane enough to comprehend the natural human desire to progress to a better standard of living–just maybe.
Once again, I am totally hoping for enough channels to remain open throughout the world to allow some backdoor dollar diplomacy without any nuclear warhead missile launches.
David 06.22.06 at 4:59 pm
Jodi,
You’re probably right that talking too much about potential Japanese military aggression, Japanese apologies, etc.,. is off-topic for this thread. As such, I look forward to learning much from you via conversation in a more private channel.
Cat 06.22.06 at 10:29 pm
Actually, it’s fine with me if the discussion “veers” a bit. But, I agree it’s a complex issue that would consume a whole book (and has). It remains to be seen what effect KJI’s threat diplomacy will have on the region as it looks as though the immediate threat has passed.
Rose Byrd 06.23.06 at 9:46 am
Gee, Jodi, this has GOT to be the first time I have ever participated in a multiperson discussion when I was not the one who first “veered”. You have made my week?
Seriously, I love this thread and hope it keeps going and attracts a larger body of participants. Especially after viewing some pictures of some Seoul demonstrations about the N.Korean missile moves– or NOT?
People talking to each other around the world reminds me of Churchill once saying to Roosevelt: “Chat-chat beats war-war anytime.” At least I THINK it was Churchill. Anyone correct me?
Rose Byrd 06.24.06 at 12:28 pm
Hello? anybody still there on Saturday morning? Not so good: no more comments, no more articles posted in about 2 days since this missile ugliness cast a pall over us all who care about all of you there in Seoul.
Somebody say SOMETHING, please?
Jo Todd 06.25.06 at 5:34 am
Cathi, now you know why Charlotte is so adamant about not liking you guys going to Korea. At least this is a good reason why she was so adamant.
I have been trying for years to not get too excited about the news on any topic. This approach works about 80% of the time, and it comes from being in elementary school during the early Cold War during which time all wallets and transistor radios were inscribed with Civil Defense stations and instructions as to what to do in the likely event of a nuclear attack. Also the duck-and-cover drills in school are still in my mind. I thought we were going to die any minute, especially after the Russians launched Sputnick.
I now believe our best weapon is economic - do vast amounts of business and let Capitalism reign. That’s what is winning, not democracy. So let it go do its thing.
Maybe Iran and North Korea have an official policy of dividing our (US)concern. NK sneaks in a doozie just when we are worried about Iran setting off a nuke. Then the situation reverses.
Rose Byrd 06.28.06 at 3:13 am
Thank you, Jo Todd! You said “vast amounts of business and let Capitalism reign.” I said “dollar diplomacy”–and I think we mean pretty much the same thing.
Cathi, just so you know: not only your aunt, but David’s great-aunt Lucretia whispered, “Isn’t that kind of–I mean, just a little– kind of –
DANGEROUS” when I told her you guys were going to be living in Seoul for at least the next couple of years. Let us all try to reminder: KJI claims to be testing long- range missles to rattle the mainland U.S. However, David is absolutely on target, and knows firsthand, how much these threat episodes affect the confidence of business investors.
Let us all join together in goodwill to look to the Bright Side of the Force. Last week’s news made me want to be a Hobbitt, for sure!
Comments on this entry are closed.