Edited to correct typo.
When I read the first news reports trickling out of Monday’s earthquake in western China, I naively thought that only a few people were killed—still a terrible tragedy.
We’re now learning that at least 10,000 are believed dead and the roads through the mountainous region are so bad that soldiers must go in on foot to attempt rescue and relief efforts.
In the town of Juyuan, south of the epicenter in the city of Wenchuan, a school collapsed, trapping 900 students in the rubble and setting off a frantic search for survivors that stretched through the night. Two chemical factories in Shifang were destroyed, spilling 80 tons of toxic liquid ammonia, officials told Chinese state media.
The destruction of a single steam turbine factory in the city of Mianzhu buried “several thousand” people, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday morning.
The quake was already China’s biggest natural disaster since another earthquake leveled the city of Tangshan in eastern China in 1976, leaving 240,000 people dead and posing a severe challenge to the ruling Communist Party, which initially tried to cover up the catastrophe.
Now there are reports that government officials had some warning the quake was imminent.
On May 9, the official website of Sichuan Provincial Government reported that citizens had been asking the local government to confirm or deny a rumor that an earthquake had been predicted for Barkam County (马尔康县). However, the government claimed that this was not the case and attempted to dispel the rumor.
In fact, Barkam County is very near the epicenter of the May 12 earthquake. Soon after the event, the government removed the rumor from the official website and all other news websites in mainland China. Also, the discussion of this event is forbidden on internet sites originating in mainland China. However, thanks to the cache function of some search engines, people can still read the unedited news of the official websites and its related discussions.
I sincerely hope it isn’t true that the government was warned and did nothing to warn citizens.
Anyone interested in sending money to help can do so through the either the Korean Red Cross, or the International Response Fund of the American Red Cross.
{ 5 comments }
MaXiao 05.13.08 at 2:55 pm
10,000 predicted dead (not 100,000). There is no way an earthquake can be predicted, although it seems as if some animals (snakes, elephants, etc.) have some unknown way of knowing of an imminent quake. In any case, there is simply no way that the government “was warned” by the quake in advance and chose not to tell the people about it. This would be scientifically impossible (apart from the fact that it hardly would be in any government’s interest (even a “scary” communist one) to withhold this type of information from it’s own people. Americans…
souk 05.13.08 at 3:03 pm
How can u learned that at least 100,000 people are believed death?
until now,the deatg toll mount to 10,000 ,rather than 100,000 ,according to state-run news agency Xinhua
Cat 05.13.08 at 3:11 pm
MaXiao,
Thanks for catching my typo. I accidentally added the extra 0 when typing. It is corrected now.
Seismic activity in the area could have indicated a quake was possible. And, other indications have been used before to predict earthquakes in China, though not always with success.
Perhaps ‘warned’ is too strong a word. It is admittedly unlikely that such a severe quake can be predicted with enough accuracy to prevent loss of life. Even if you know an earthquake is going to occur in the next days or weeks, what could anyone do?
However, I find it interesting that the mention of the quake prediction rumors have been removed from websites even though the information is visible on caches of the older versions of the pages.
Cat 05.13.08 at 3:12 pm
@souk. The number should read 10,000. It is now corrected.
Sonagi 05.14.08 at 6:51 am
“There is no way an earthquake can be predicted, although it seems as if some animals (snakes, elephants, etc.) have some unknown way of knowing of an imminent quake. In any case, there is simply no way that the government “was warned” by the quake in advance and chose not to tell the people about it. This would be scientifically impossible (apart from the fact that it hardly would be in any government’s interest (even a “scary” communist one) to withhold this type of information from it’s own people. “
Good thing the officials of Qinglong County didn’t know this back in the early 70s. If you are familiar with the Tangshan earthquake, then you probably know that there was only one quake-related death from a heart attack in Qinglong Country despite the fact that 180,000 buildings were damaged. How did the people of Qinglong manage to survive such a deadly quake? Read here: http://www.globalwatch.org/ungp/qinglong.htm
In 1974, a local seismological expert predicted that the area was due for a big quake soon. On July 16, 1976, a young administrator named Wang Chunqing presented seismological data indicating that a major quake of 5+ magnitude would strike within a month and an even bigger one up to 8 would hit before the end of the year. Local officials heeded his warning and prepared by holding classes outside, and two days before the massive July 28 quake, emergency tents were set up.
It’s not a matter of the government withholding information beforehand; it’s a matter of being willing to spend the time and money on preparations for an uncertain yet potentially devastating event. If you can read Chinese, click on the link in my entry at the Marmot’s Hole and read the cache version of the deleted message from the Sichuan Provincial government yourself.
‘Americans…”
Gratutious references to nationality make such effective counterarguments. Chinese netizens are posting messages about the official Sichuan rumor rebuttal and citizen reports of unusual happenings like the draining of the resevoir and the 10,000 frogs moving north. Similar events were observed prior to the Tangshan quake.
Comments on this entry are closed.